Rougned Odor is a Bargain this Year

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Hear me now, you can wait on second baseman in your draft. I don’t target second base in the early rounds unless it falls on my lap. When I say Rougned Odor, what comes to mind? Strike outs, power? Yeah, same here.

But!

There’s value to be had here even after his somewhat poor performance last year. He was drafted much higher last year and so owners were a bit burned by his results. This year he’s getting drafted around 100 (114 in CBS and 97 in Yahoo)  and sometimes beyond depending on your league. Whit Merrifield is going 50 picks before him in CBS! For 30 home run power, 80 runs and 80 RBI with 15 stolen bases at 2B around his 100 ADP is an extreme steal. The bad, well, his average dropped, a lot! It dropped from .271 to .204. He struck out at a higher rate (nearly 25%) and his soft hit rate increased to nearly 19%. With the negatives, there are positives to look at from last year.

Some of the positives from 2017:
– Hard hit rate actually increased.
– His HR/FB was nearly the same,which makes me think it will stabilize at 15% or above.
– He duplicated his fly ball rate from 2016.
– He didn’t get injured and had over 600 at bats for the second straight year.
– He swung at less pitches outside of the zone (yes, that’s true).
– His BABIP was last in the league among qualified hitters. Not a positive in season but shows that there should be a batting average increase.
– He increased his walk rate from 3% to 5%.
– He throws a a nasty right hook (OK, that was from 2016 but Bautista stills feels it).

With the low BABIP, you can expect it will get closer to his career average of .273. I’m not sure he’s a .270 hitter but he can definitely hit .250. I can guarantee that he will not cross that Mendoza line. His power is elite, especially for 2B. He can easily hit 25+ and I wouldn’t be surprised if he hit 30 plus again.  He’s young and he can improve at the plate and on the bases. I see him stealing another 15 bags this year.

Games PA HR Runs RBI SB BA
THE BAT 149 640 31 85 88 16 0.258
ATC 154 625 29 80 81 15 0.245
Depth Charts 153 644 31 85 92 14 0.256
Steamer 141 568 28 72 84 13 0.256

You’re looking at 30 (HR), 80 (runs), 80 (RBI), 15 (SB) and a .250 batting average in most projections and I agree with those.

Brian Dozier for example is getting drafted at 34 and I love me some Brian Dozier but when you look at the numbers, they shouldn’t be drafted so far apart. The Bat projections has Brian Dozier at 35 (HR), 93 (Runs), 92 (RBI), 13 (SB) and a .277 batting average. A few more homers, runs and RBI for Brian Dozer than Rougned Odor but they are getting drafted in some leagues 70 picks apart.

When to target Rougned Odor:
When you missed out on other top tier 2B.
When you need some power.
When your BA won’t take a big hit.
When you could use steals to pad your totals.
When someone doesn’t value him as a star in your dynasty or keeper league.

In summary:
Draft him around 100 or pay 12-15 bucks in auction leagues and you won’t be disappointed. Expect his BA to rebound to around .250, his power and speed to remain constant, and his counting stats to add up in a very good Texas offense.

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